🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was officially announced, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the event. Market Movement in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion surged in the hours before former President Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been seized. A particular user, which became a member last month and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Platform data shows that traders estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just under 7% in the midday period of the Friday before the event. Yet these probabilities had jumped to eleven percent by late Friday night and surged in the first hours of the next day, pointing to a sudden change in positions right before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a trade based on confidential knowledge," said a financial reform advocate. A small number of other individuals also profited significant sums from similar wagers. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation presented on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. Market Background Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the United States, with traders able to bet on everything from elections to current affairs. This sector were examined under the Biden administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting space. A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."