🔗 Share this article From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent. A Grim History and a New Escalation The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared. The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried. Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor. However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are even more hardline. The Superpower as Rogue State A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor. He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”. An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them. Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism. The Thin Pretext and True Motives It is widely rejected the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters. Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance. Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing. We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.